The Hiller Instinct: McCain Leads Bush in 7 News/Reuters Poll

How does New Hampshire spell president, 2000? Try M-C-C-A-I-N. Our poll shows McCain not only beating George W. Bush among Republican voters, but also defeating Democrat Al Gore by 20 percentage points, 56 to 36, and topping Bill Bradley by nine points, 49 to 40, when voters from all parties are counted.

John Zogby, Pollster
"As of today, it looks like John McCain is the favorite son ."

McCain connects even when he appears to lose. After last week's debate, for example, more viewers said Bush won than McCain. But when we asked whose debate performances impressed them, 70 percent said McCain, while 56 percent said Bush.

Voters also rate McCain significantly higher than Bush on honesty and integrity, experience in foreign policy, understanding the problems of the middle class and handling the presidency during an economic downturn. So he continues to grow when other candidates might crumple.

John Zogby
"His lead is increasing not only after ten days of negative news stories, but also after about ten days of a huge barrage of political advertising by George W. Bush."

Endorsements aren't boosting Bush either. Less than five percent say Elizabeth Dole's support makes them much more likely to vote for him, although 36 percent think she'd be Bush's best running mate.

John Zogby
"McCain is the one who has gained and Elizabeth Dole, in fact, hasn't caused George W.'s numbers to even move a whole percentile."

And so where not so long ago the question was: How much will George W. Bush win by, it may be more accurate now to wonder how badly he could lose to McCain.

John Zogby
"What we're looking here are the earmarks of a potential landslide."

But first, please a pause for perspective. New Hampshire is just one state, nd it may be the only one where McCain can beat Bush. But it's also the only state that can give McCain any real hope of winning the White House, with a win that shows Bush is neither unbeatable nor inevitable.