The Hiller Instinct: 7News-Suffolk Poll: Bush

If Howard Dean were an airplane, he'd be flying high, Wesley Clark would be taking off and John Kerry would be wondering whether he was headed for a crash in New Hampshire.

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"Dean is only seven to eight points from locking this thing up and it appears to be that Clark's rise has come at the expense of John Kerry."

Dean has opened up a significant lead over Kerry, who is slipping quickly, while Clark is coming on.

Four other Democrats are stuck in single digits, apparently going nowhere, while three are running on empty -- bottomed out at ground zero.

Our poll shows Dean is definitely electable, voters don't think his lack of foreign policy experience disqualifies him from being president.

And we find room for Clark to grow given the relatively low number of voters who know him, and the high number who'll say they'll vote for him.

But, for Kerry, all this poll is a problem…

Prof. David Paleologos
"He's in clear danger. If he loses New Hampshire or finishes third or worse in NH, he's not going to make it to the ‘World Series’ of politics."

Which brings us to President Bush.

While a majority of likely democratic primary voters think the war in Iraq isn’t worth it, when we asked, "Who do you expect the next president will be?" 28 percent said Bush, twice as many as Dean, the top democrat with Kerry and Clark trailing and 34 percent undecided…

Prof. David Paleologos
"It tells us the perception of likely democrats is that when we go through this democratic exercise, in the end, Bush will prevail."

One poll, four conclusions: Howard dean needs to keep it up; Wesley Clark needs to step it up, and John Kerry needs to change it up. Most important -- President Bush may be beatable, but no democrat is beating him yet in New Hampshire.