The Hiller Instinct: 7News-Suffolk Poll: Bush's Trust

Our survey should make Kerry smile...

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"John Kerry is back, it's clear."

Disturb Dean…

Prof. David Paleologos
"He appears to have peaked."

And worry Wesley Clark...

Prof. David Paleologos
"Clark has only improved one per cent over the last month."

While our latest poll of likely democratic primary voters still has Dean in front, Kerry is closing the gap, while Clark's surge has stalled... and many voters remain undecided.

Prof. David Paleologos
"It's really a two person race now."

Which is a kind way of saying the other democrats running have virtually no chance of winning in New Hampshire.

Prof. David Paleologos
"It's Howard Dean's race to lose at this point."

And Dean could lose it if Kerry improves his campaign strategy and style…

Prof. David Paleologos
"The professionalism of the campaign seems to be the difference, not personal popularity. Kerry is more personally popular."

Our poll also shows increased vulnerability for President Bush. Asked, "Who do you expect the next president to be", 25 percent of likely democratic primary voters now say Bush, much lower than the figure last March.

And what is causing that loss may be a loss of trust. Sixty-four percent, nearly two thirds, think the Bush Administration deliberately misled the public about how big a threat Iraq was before the war began.

Prof. David Paleologos
"He needs to figure out a way to convince democrats that his campaign in Iraq is a worthwhile one, and he hasn't done that to date."

New Hampshire is shaping up like a Red Sox game. Forget who's ahead early, there will be comebacks... and missed chances. And when it's done, I promise you, there will be voters who say, "I can't believe how it ended."