The Hiller Instinct: Race for the White House: Political Powerplay

Sen. John Kerry (D) Presidential Candidate
"Looks good."

Initially, the Kerry campaign did look good. He was the democrat’s first frontrunner and seemed positioned to take off. But now he's hit rough seas and is struggling to stay above water.

Sen. John Kerry "Rock the Vote"
"Well it all depends on which poll you look at."

No it doesn't. Take the latest national poll of democratic voters. Kerry is tied for fifth place with Carol Moseley Braun, whom no one has ever called a frontrunner. And in New Hampshire, Dean beats Kerry again by a substantial fourteen percentage points.

Howard Dean (D) Presidential Candidate
"It's the rise of Howard Dean, of course, that helping bring Kerry down."

Dean is about to win endorsements Kerry and all the other democrats wanted and Dean has been so successful collecting contributions, he's just decided to forego federal campaign funds.

Kerry's reaction to Dean's choice is weak…

Sen. John Kerry "Face The Nation"
"If Governor Dean is prepared to live by it, I'm prepared to live by it. This is his decision if he breaks it, but I always said consistently that if he does go out of it, I'm prepared to. Now, whether I will or not, I'll make that decision."

Campaigning, Kerry has struggled to connect with voters…

Sen. John Kerry
"That's very moving, it really is. It's very moving, it's tough."

And even in free-wheeling forums, he can sound like a stiff senator debating a bill…

Sen. John Kerry "Rock the Vote"
"Can I ask a clarification. Were you asking that specifically about gay and lesbian or were you asking that specifically generically?"

Kerry needs to take his own advice…

Sen. John Kerry
"I think it's mostly the timing, Andy. It's time to get going."

It's too soon to count Kerry out, but it's not too soon to see him fading out. Dean has more money, Wesley Clark a more impressive military career, Dick Gephardt and John Edwards more momentum.

So Kerry needs to change more than his campaign staff. If he wants to see what really needs changing, he should look in a mirror.