The Hiller Instinct: Decision ’04: 7News/Suffolk Poll

As Iowa goes, so goes New Hampshire - at least for the moment. John Kerry's Iowa surge is already being duplicated here - just as Howard Dean is weakening in both states. The biggest difference is Iowa is a four-man race, while New Hampshire is now a struggle between three candidates, with a significant 20 percent of likely Democratic primary voters here still undecided.

Howard Dean remains in front - with 25 percent - but with John Kerry and Wesley Clark both at 19 percent, Dean is a very vulnerable front runner and either Kerry or Clark could catch him.

Our exclusive 7News Suffolk University overnight poll shows the rest of the Democratic candidates - right now - have little chance to win, or even be among the top three finishers here.

By polling every day, we can track the movement up and down by the candidates...and, over the weekend, New Hampshire was not standing still.

Take a look at the daily difference on Sunday compared to Saturday. Dean was down 7 points, Kerry was up 7, and Clark lost 6. Now that's movement!

Our pollster, David Paleologos, is here with us now. First question, is Dean in free fall?

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"Well, if he is then perhaps a big Iowa win would be his golden parachute, but the answer is no. Howard Dean is still the candidate to beat. He’s lost some points in the overnight tracking, and John Kerry is surging."

Our poll also found a geography gap Howard Dean had opened up is closing, and, David, that could be more trouble for him, couldn't it?

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"In the five counties in the western or northern areas – the counties that either touch Vermont or are very close to Vermont – these were the counties that were making Howard Dean’s candidacy stick. Now it is a vulnerability and Wesley Clark has made inroads and it’s benefited John Kerry.