The Hiller Instinct: 7News/Suffolk University Tracking Poll

Buckle up! Howard Dean's once leisurely ride through New Hampshire is no longer a smooth Sunday drive. Suddenly there are speed bumps on his primary path here, big enough to knock him off the road to the White House.

Howard Dean is holding on while John Kerry's coming on, our exclusive 7News/Suffolk University Poll shows Dean ahead with 25 percent and Kerry and Wesley Clark both with 19 percent. But keep your eye on Kerry…

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"Howard Dean is clearly the front-runner still, but his lead is eroding especially in the last 48 hours, John Kerry is surging dramatically."

Our tracking poll shows that surge. On Sunday, compared to Saturday, Dean lost seven points while Kerry picked up seven and Clark dropped six. Our poll reveals two reasons why Kerry is surging.

Prof. David Paleologos
"We notice there's a clear trend towards John Kerry among women and older voters, two institutional bases that will make a big difference in the primary."

But Kerry's on the short end of an age gap among young voters aged 18-34. Dean dominates that group.

Prof. David Paleologos
"He's tapped into the young voters through the Internet. That’s been the vehicle by which he has reached folks who traditionally don’t participate in this process. That’s a big, big gem for him because if he bring those folks to the polls, he wins."

Iowa is now the "if" capitol of presidential politics. There are so many possible outcomes there, anyone can be a sultan of speculation. Until tonight when one or more candidates win by beating expectations, and others lose. Then we should know what the final week before the New Hampshire primary will resemble: a coronation or a frenzy.