The Hiller Instinct: 7News/Suffolk Poll: Decision '04

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The first full day of campaigning by all the candidates produced little change in their standing here. But if you look closely at our tracking poll numbers, you'll sense that John Kerry is subjecting Howard Dean to a political version of the Chinese water torture...extinguishing Dean's lead drop by drop.

Our exclusive 7News/Suffolk University poll shows Dean--at 22 percent--is now just two points ahead of Kerry, who's supported by 20 percent of likely Democratic primary voters here.

Our overnight poll also shows Wesley Clark--with 15 percent--still within striking distance of the top. But John Edwards and Joe Lieberman--both with six percent--too far back to be major factors.

Now, movement. Again, not much among the candidates. But just enough to reinforce the sense Kerry is only a day or two away from over-taking Dean here, unless Dean can somehow change the dynamic of the campaign in New Hampshire.

Dean is the only candidate to lose support - dropping a point, while Kerry and Clark stayed even, holding on to what they had.

And here's the key figure in today's poll. Undecided, up three to 29 percent - another indication support is trickling away from Dean, whose numbers were once much higher.

While we haven't seen the full measure of the Iowa bounce yet, we can already guess it's not going to be very high this time around. But it may be just big enough to nudge Kerry past Dean, a single point or two at a time.

Dean's lead is dripping away - and, slowly, Kerry is coming. Did I already mention the Chinese water torture?