The Hiller Instinct: 7News/Suffolk Poll: Decision '04

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Good morning and attention, New England! We sensed it; we speculated about it; and, today, we see it! John Kerry is the new front-runner in New Hampshire, and not by a small margin. Kerry's surge comes as Howard Dean's campaign continues to collapse, and the race for second place here now may be closer than the race for first.

Our exclusive 7News Suffolk University overnight poll shows Kerry at 27 percent...eight percentage points up on Dean--at 19--who's now only four points ahead of Wesley Clark.

John Edwards--at seven percent and Joe Lieberman--at 6--are clearly in the second tier among likely Democratic primary voters here.

If you felt the earth move in New Hampshire yesterday--and wondered what was happening--it may have been the tremors of the Kerry earthquake. This is no Iowa bump...it's a Kerrythump!

Just look at our daily difference: Kerry up seven points in 24 hours...and Dean down four during the same time period...as John Edwards became the new turtle in the race, picking up a point overnight.

We've been telling you how many undecided voters there are in this race, and there are still plenty...but fewer than there were yesterday, and fewer than now support Kerry.

Our poll shows 25 percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain unsure whom they'll vote for...down 4 percent from just a day ago.

Obviously those undecideds decided to back Kerry, and if many more of them do, start thinking about a Kerry crush here next Tuesday.

If there's any bad news in this poll for Kerry--and you have to stretch to find it--it's that he wanted to campaign as the underdog here. Forget it! He's the big dog.