7News/Suffolk Poll: Decision \'04
The Hiller Instinct: 7News/Suffolk Poll: Decision '04
We have some movement to report this morning, but nothing as dramatic as yesterday, when John Kerry took over the lead from Howard Dean, and Dean appeared to be in free-fall. Kerry is still on to, but Dean may have finally stopped his fall. And Wesley Clark is moving up on Dean, tightening the race for the silver medal here, and maybe even the gold.
Here are the numbers in our overnight poll: Kerry supported by 26 percent; Dean by 19 percent; and Clark by 17 percent of likely Democratic primary voters.
John Edwards--at seven percent-- appears to be getting no bounce from his second place finish in Iowa, and Joe Lieberman--at five--appears to be getting no bounce anywhere.
Now let's take a look at the movement that's producing the new numbers. Again, it's slight, but, if it continues, it will be significant.
The daily difference in our exclusive 7News Suffolk University poll shows Kerry losing a point, Dean even--holding steady, and Wesley Clark up two percentage points.
That makes the undecided voters we've been following the king-makers in this race, because there are still more than enough of them to send this race in several directions.
Our poll shows 26 percent of likely primary voters still haven't picked a candidate, one percentage point more than yesterday.
Do the math. How the undecideds here break will decide who wins the primary. If they split evenly, Kerry will take it. But if they move to one candidate, Kerry, Dean, or even Clark could finish first.
With Kerry's surge apparently stopped; Dean stopping his bleeding; and Clark starting to climb, a three-way race is still possible.
So John Kerry is still in the driver's seat, but he's not in the car alone.
As the candidates work New Hampshire for one final weekend: our pollsters will be working as well.