The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk Poll: Governor's race

Maybe more competitive than the governor wants, with our poll showing fewer voters approve of the job he's doing than disapprove...more than half of all voters think the state is headed in the wrong direction and 56% think it's time to elect someone else.

Still, if the election were today, our poll shows Patrick beating his opponents.

One is certain to be Treasurer Tim Cahill, who quit the Democratic Party to run as an independent.

On the Republican side come November the other will be either Charlie Baker or Christy Mihos.

Our exclusive 7News-Suffolk University poll shows it's likely to be Baker, who more than doubles Mihos' 19%, with 38% undecided.

If Baker does win the primary, and goes head-to-head with Patrick and Cahill, our poll shows the governor on top, with 36%, Cahill 23%, Baker 14%, and 26% undecided.

If Mihos is the republican candidate, the numbers don't change very much: the governor stays on top with 36%, then it's Cahill 24%, Mihos 17%, and 23% undecided.

Paleologos
"Governor Patrick has a core vote of 35-40%. In any other scenario that's not good enough to win. But, in this scenario, you've got two strong opposing candidates evenly splitting the vote."

Because there's a strong independent candidate, we dug deeper in our poll, asking voters who their second choice is.

Patrick's supporters picked Cahill.

Charlie Baker's backers also said Cahill.

And for Cahill's supporters, the back-up is Baker.

So here's what to watch in this race.

If all three candidates stay strong, Patrick wins another term.

If the governor falters, Cahill gains enough votes to make him the next governor.

If Baker goes bust, that will also send Cahill to the corner office...

And if Cahill Crashes, then Charlie Baker gets the top job on Beacon Hill...

Paleologos
'This is the first time in Massachusetts history that a candidate for governor is actually rooting for both of his opponents to be strong, and divide the vote evenly."

We like to say "anyone can win," because we don't like to say that's not true.

But, this time, it really is.

And whoever does win will have one of his opponents to thank.

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