The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk University Poll

Martha Coakley is still the Democratic front-runner, and Scott Brown is the Republicans' number one.

Our exclusive 7News-Suffolk University poll of likely primary voters shows Coakley, with 44 percent, has more support than Steve Pagliuca, Mike Capuano and Alan Khazei combined, with 20 percent undecided.

But Coakley could be caught.

Because Democratic primary voters say Pagliuca, not Coakley, is running the best campaign, and that Capuano, not Coakley, is the candidate most like Ted Kennedy.

In the Republican primary, Scott Brown gets 45 percent, Jack E Robinson 7, and undecided 47 percent.

But our poll shows Brown losing badly to Coakley, Capuano, and Pagliuca.

So the winner of the Democratic primary will likely be the next senator.

In the governor's race, it's divide and conquer for Deval Patrick.

While 51 percent disapprove of the job he's doing, and 55 percent think it's time to elect someone else, more voters think he'll win than any of his challengers.

How can that be?

"If there were one candidate running against Deval Patrick, he'd lose. But with two candidates splitting the vote evenly--Deval Patrick is in a very strong position to win re-election," said Professor David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster.

The biggest surprise of our poll may be Christy Mihos, with 33 percent, leading Charlie Baker, with 30 percent. 37 percent of likely GOP primary voters are undecided.

We also asked you about issues, and the word that best describes your answers is "worried."

Is the recession over in Massachusetts?

89 percent of you say no!

Can the state afford its near-universal health care?

56 percent say no.

And when you get a chance next November to repeal the recent sales tax hike, 59 percent of you say you'll take it.

"It's not like the old days where people wanted programs regardless of the cost. Today, people are price-shopping at the ballot box,’ Paleologos said.

We like to think government can solve all our problems. What this poll tells me is that we're learning it can't.

I’m Andy Hiller, 7News.

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