The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk University Poll

Our exclusive 7NEWS/Suffolk University Poll shows Brown, with 50%, in front of Coakley with 46%. Independent Joe Kennedy gets 3% and just 1% is still undecided.  

How quickly has this race turned around?

In November, Coakley was beating Brown by 31 percentage points. Now, Brown is up by 4% -- a change of 35% in two months.

Suffolk Poll University pollster David Paleologos said, "Here's how the race breaks down. Scott Brown wins among men, Martha Coakley among women. Democrats: Coakley. Republicans and Independents: Brown, by a wide, wide margin."

"I’m not in your courtroom. I’m not a defendant. Let me answer the question,” Brown said to Coakley in the last debate.

One reason for Coakley's collapse is her performance in debates. Nearly half of likely voters say they've seen one and asked who won -- 41% say Brown, 25% Coakley.

During the campaign Coakley said, "I want to be a leader who's ready to get real results on health care reform...”

And Coakley is not being helped by her pledge to help pass the Democrat's national health care bill. Fifty-one percent of likely voters here say no to it while 36% say yes. Sixty-one percent think Washington can't afford it.

Vicki Kennedy said, "As Ted would say, 'January 19th is the date, Martha Coakley is the candidate.'"

Another surprise -- The Kennedy family's endorsement may have actually hurt Coakley. With 27% said it makes them less likely to vote for her... 20% more likely.

"The Kennedy endorsement resonates among registered Democrats, but registered Democrats are spoken for," Paleologos said.

And here's one more surprise. While Brown is beating Coakley head-to-head, 64% of voters we surveyed say Coakley will win the election.

"People don't believe that the rest of the state of Massachusetts will vote for Scott Brown, despite the fact that they personally will vote for Scott Brown," Paleologos said.

If -- repeat if -- Scott Brown wins next Tuesday, it is no exaggeration to say he will change the world of politics as we know it.

I'm Andy Hiller, 7NEWS.

Click here to view the entire poll: http://www.suffolk.edu/research/1450.html

Final MA Statewide Marginals PDF File

(Copyright (c) 2010 Sunbeam Television. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.)