The Hiller Instinct: Gov. Patrick leads 7NEWS/Suffolk Poll

Once again, he's at the top of our exclusive 7NEWS Suffolk University poll, with 42%. Republican Charlie Baker gets 29%, independent Tim Cahill 14%, and the Green-Rainbow Party's Jill Stein 8%.

"We're in it to win it..." the governor said.

And that's just what's he doing, even though 55% of the state's voters say it's time to give someone else a chance to be governor; 52% think Massachusetts is headed in the wrong direction; and 49% disapprove of Patrick's job performance: "If this were a two person race, Governor Patrick would lose. But, because there are three opponents, they're splitting up that majority, so it's less about the percentages of the opponents and more about the number of opponents in this race," Professor David Paleologos, Suffolk University pollster said.

Charlie Baker will be encouraged by our poll, but he shouldn't be too enthusiastic. While he's the only candidate whose support has steadily increased since last September...at the same time, his gap with the governor is growing -- from eight points in February to 13 now.

"Eight, nine months ago I got into this, nobody knew me at all. I'm in the mix with the rest of these folks and I expect that I'll continue to be in the mix with them," Baker said.

What's changed the mix most are all the ads from the Republican Governors Association targeting Tim Cahill... (The ads said, "he’s reckless with our money.")

"I'm hopeful that people will ignore the untruths in the ads, but..." Cahill said.

They didn't! Two-thirds of voters have seen the ads...and now, Cahill's support is down, and his unfavorability is up, leaving him wishing and hoping: "I hope it's a three-way race, which means I'm in it. If it turns into be a two-way race, I hope I'm one of the two," Cahill said.

Our poll gives Jill Stein hope, too. Given how few voters know her, 8% is impressive.

While this race is just starting, it could be almost over.

The governor's greatest strength is how many candidates are challenging him. Together they can re-elect him.

Full poll results

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