The Hiller Instinct: Governor's Race Tightens

Five weeks before Election Day, it's also coming down to a tight two-way race. Deval Patrick is now clinging to a one point lead over Charlie Baker in the latest poll, while Tim Cahill is falling off the pace, and Jill Stein was never on it.

The Boston Globe's poll is a problem for Patrick because it suggests he's peaked, with half of all voters saying he's taking the state in the wrong direction. Add in low support from independent voters and the governor knows the big lead he once had is gone:

“Nobody's entitled to these jobs,” Patrick said. “I'm not entitled to it, Charlie Baker's not entitled to it, Tim Cahill isn't, Dr. Stein...we should have to compete."

“Well, we've been feeling for the past few weeks that the momentum's been coming in our direction and that poll just confirms it,” Baker said.

Patrick's pain is Charlie baker's gain, particularly among independent voters. Baker is also viewed more favorably than Patrick, but is seen as less likeable.

When I asked Baker if he has a sense of humor, he laughed and replied, “My wife thinks I have a sense of humor, my friends do. I think the most important thing, Andy, is not whether you have a sense of humor, it's whether you can actually get anything done.”

The most important thing this poll tells us is that the governor's race is still out there to be won. Patrick and Baker have spent months working themselves into a tie. The next five weeks will be the tiebreaker.

I’m Andy Hiller, and that’s my instinct.