The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk Poll - Patrick leads for Gov.

In our exclusive 7News-Suffolk University poll, it's Patrick 46%; Charlie Baker 39%; Tim Cahill 10%; Jill Stein 1%; and undecided 4 percent.

"People are telling me to keep fighting," Cahill says, but his fight may be over.  His dramatic lawsuit against his own top campaign staffers didn't help him, though it sure made a lot of noise:  80% of likely voters say they know about it.

"Many in that group said it didn't matter," Professor David Paleologos,

Suffolk University pollster says.  "But of those where it did matter, it hurt Cahill, and Baker and that's a net plus for Deval Patrick."

Still, 45% of likely voters want Cahill to stay in the race, while 40% say he should drop out.  This poll is not what Charlie Baker wants to see.

More voters now view him unfavorably more than favorably...and Patrick beats him badly on the question of who has the best temperament to be governor....44% to 20%...with Cahill far behind at 9 percent.

Perhaps that's because Baker sounds more frustrated than gubernatorial:

"We should be doing much, much better," Baker says.  "That's why I got into the race and left my company- which I've been at for ten years- in the first place."

Deval Patrick won't be easy to catch.  Likely voters tell us he's running the best campaign, and more agree with him that maintaining state services is more important than cutting state spending.

"Deval Patrick is right on the goal line.  He hasn't crossed the goal line--he could fumble--but he's in a very good position two and a half weeks out," Paleologos says.

Charlie Baker has big problems.  His angry man attitude isn't catching on, nor is his emphasis on cutting state government.

But what can Baker do?  The path he's on doesn't look like the victory lane, and if he suddenly reinvents himself, who's going to believe it?

I'm Andy Hiller, 7news.

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