The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk Poll - Race for Mass. Governor

In our exclusive 7News-Suffolk University poll, it's Patrick 46%; Charlie Baker, 39%; Tim Cahill, 9%; Jill Stein, 2%, with 5% undecided.

And our poll also shows why the governor is winning. Patrick is benefitting from a gender gap that's blocking Baker's efforts to catch him. Among women, Patrick is beating Baker by 31%, though Baker is up among men by 20%.

"Charlie Baker has made some gains, more gains among men," Professor David Paleologos, Suffolk University pollster says. "But he's lost more among women, and so the net difference is the same."

More pluses for Patrick: likely voters we surveyed say he's running the best campaign, and that he has the best temperament to be governor.

Our poll also reveals the governor got a bit of a boost from his rally with President Obama. While 60% said it makes no difference in the race, 20% said it will help Patrick. So it was certainly no boomerang!

I asked, "Is there any way Charlie Baker wins?"

"We're past persuasion at this point - we're into who turns out," Paleologos said. "And if a large chunk of Deval Patrick supporters from our poll don't show up next Tuesday, Charlie Baker could win."

Races get closer in the last days, so this isn't the last look we'll take at this race. Our pollster will be surveying some key communities that should tell us what's happening on the final weekend, and we'll tell you what we found out Sunday night.

I'm Andy Hiller, 7News night team.

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