The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk Poll - Brown and Warren in dead heat

If the Senate race were a horse race, this is what it would look like: neck and neck, down to the wire...

Head-to-head in our exclusive 7News/Suffolk University Poll it's Scott Brown 48%, Elizabeth Warren 47%...with just 5% undecided.

In February, Brown was up 49 to 40; so he's flat, and she's growing.

Hiller asks Warren: “Are you part Indian?”

Warren says, “Yes."

Though she's offered no documents to support her claim she's part Cherokee, Warren has survived three weeks of negative stories about her Native American background.

"I am very proud of my heritage. These are my family stories. This is what my brothers and i were told by my mom and my dad, my mamua and my papua...” Warren said.

Our poll reveals voters are taking her word for it: 49% think she's telling the truth, 28% say she’ss not.

And while 41% believe she benefited by listing herself as a minority...45% don't.

Warren has also counter-attacked against brown:

"Scott Brown delivers for Wall Street," Warren said.

But likely voters aren't buying that, either: 55% say a vote for Brown is not a vote for Wall Street.

Warren's greatest strength? 49% of likely voters say she'll represent middle class families better than Brown.

His biggest asset? 47% of likely voters say he'll be more independent than Warren.

With President Obama apparently headed for a landslide win here over Mitt Romney--he's leading by 25 points--his coattails could help Warren win.

But, a key finding that could boost Brown: 56% believe Massachusetts would benefit by having one Democrat and one Republican in the Senate...38% say no.

"The poll tells us that one out of every 4 Obama voters is casting a ballot for Scott Brown. So there will be ticket splitting in November," Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos said.

So what will decide what's expected to be the most expensive, most closely watched senate race in the country?

Our poll says it won't be wigwams or Wall Street.

With so few voters undecided, my guess is it will be the debates.