The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk Poll - Warren tops Brown in new poll

We have a new leader! Elizabeth Warren is now winning her race with Scott Brown.

In our exclusive 7News Suffolk University poll, it's Warren 48%, Brown 44%, with 8% undecided.

"For many years now,” Warren said in her DNC speech, “our middle class has been chipped, squeezed, and hammered."

Warren's convention speech in Charlotte was apparently a turning point for her campaign.

"The Democratic National Convention connected the dots: registered Democrats, minority voters, women, even Obama voters. Higher intensity, higher votes for Elizabeth Warren," Suffolk University Professor David Paleologos said.

Scott Brown has reason to be frustrated.

Our poll shows likely voters think he's running a better campaign than Warren; that he'd be more independent; and that he better represents the interests of the state.

But when it comes to better representing middle class families, it's Warren 49%, Brown 42%.

"Elizabeth Warren, over time, has now changed the conversation. It used to be being an independent voice, but now that's being trumped by representing the middle class," Paleologos said.

"I'm on your side, fighting for the middle class," Brown said in a campaign ad.

Brown is fighting back in his ads, but our poll says he's losing ground, and Warren's decision to go negative will force Brown to fight even harder...

"He's been siding with the big money guys. Tax cuts for millionaires. That's not gonna help people around here," a boxing trainer says in Warren’s ad.

"Don't be fooled by Elizabeth Warren's negative attacks," Brown says in his ad.

Our poll points to a way back for Brown, but it's a dangerous way.

When we asked voters which word best describes him, the top answers were “Republican”, “honest/integrity”, and “independent”.

And when we asked for a word describing Warren, the top answers were “smart,” “consumer protection,” and “liar”.

“Liar” refers to Warren's unproven claim she's part Native American.

But if Brown pushes that too hard, it could backfire, hurting his image as a good guy.

It's a delicate balance, and Brown can't afford to get it wrong.