The Hiller Instinct: Suffolk Poll: Mass. Senate

With the weather clearing, Scott Brown may be regretting his decision to pull out of tonight's debate with Elizabeth Warren.

Our new poll shows Brown needs another chance to weaken Warren. If he doesn't get it, our poll says Brown will be driving his pickup truck home soon, while Warren will be moving to Washington.

As the election gets closer, Brown is falling farther behind Warren, and Warren is positioned to glide to a relatively easy victory next Tuesday.

In our exclusive 7News Suffolk University Poll, it's Warren 53%, Brown 46%, with just one percent undecided. A seven point edge. In our last poll--in September--Warren was beating Brown by 4 points, 48 to 44 percent.

Our poll says Brown's negative campaign has failed. 54% of likely voters say Warren is who she says she is.

Worse for Brown, his negative ads have hurt him more than Warren. Right now, 45% of likely voters view him favorably, and 42% unfavorably. Last month, Brown was viewed favorably by 60% of voters and unfavorably by just 29%.

Meanwhile, Warren's ads are working:

Asked who's running a better campaign, 43% say Warren, 32% Brown.

And those voters also say Warren better represents the interests of Massachusetts, better represents the interests of middle class families, and can be more trusted to tell the truth.

And the president gives Warren another plus, because he's expected to boost Democratic turnout here.

In our poll, it's President Obama 63%, former Gov. Romney 31%, undecided, three percent.

Looking at these numbers, it's reasonable to conclude it would be tough for any Republican to win this senate seat this time around.

That may not give Scott brown much comfort, but it should.