The Hiller Instinct: Hiller Instinct: Governor race 7News/Suffolk University Poll

Election Day can't come soon enough for Deval Patrick, Chris Gabrieli probably wishes he had more time and Tom Reilly looks to be running out the clock.

Our exclusive 7News/Suffolk University poll of Democratic primary voters shows Patrick on top with 37 percent, Gabrieli second with 29 percent, Reilly third with 21 percent and 11percent still undecided.

"Deval Patrick's position is quite strong," Suffolk University pollster, David Paleologos said.  "Eight percent lead, only 11 percent undecided, Chris Gabrieli now has to break the undecided 10-1 or 9-2.  In polling statistical terms, that's highly improbable."

Patrick's lead is even larger in three bellwether towns we chose to poll.

Reading, Shrewsbury and Chelmsford all closely mirrored statewide results in 2002 and 1998. And this year, Patrick gets nearly 50 percent in all of them.

"Although they're different, Deval Patrick's appeal is diverse, and it's consistent, and most important it's powerful," Paleologos said.

But if the outcome of the gubernatorial primary seems clear, it's foggy in the race for lieutenant governor.

Deborah Goldberg is first with 25 percent, closely trailed by Tim Murray at 22 percent and Andrea Silbert at 20 percent.  A huge 31percent is still undecided.

"You could throw a blanket over the three of them," Paleologos said.  "That's how close in proximity they are. If highly undecided within the margin of error, anyone can win this race."

Candidates who come up short in polls often say, "It's people who vote, not polls," and they're right, of course.  But, don't forget, it's the people who vote in polls, too.

So with Patrick on top in every poll, the truth is: if he doesn't win tomorrow, it's an upset and the people who ought to be the most upset are the pollsters.

Poll Results:
September 18, 2006 Poll Results
7News/Suffolk University Poll: Patrick En Route to Historic Win

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