The Hiller Instinct: Hiller Instinct: Governor race preview

Our exclusive 7News/Suffolk University poll shows Deval Patrick with the lead carrying 37 percent of voters. Gabrieli has 29 percent, and Reilly is in third with 21percent. Eleven percent of voters polled are still undecided.

The Democratic Primary campaign ended tonight with an old-fashioned rally in Dorchester. Tomorrow, statewide, the real polling begins.

"Don't forget to vote," Deval Patrick yells to supporters.

All the surveys say Patrick will win, but like all the Democrats running for governor, Patrick doesn't confuse polls of voters with voters actually going to the polls.

"You know this isn't over until the voters say it's over and they won't say it's over until eight o'clock tomorrow night," Patrick said.

But don't underestimate Patrick’s strength.

We also tracked this race in three towns: Shrewsbury, Chelmsford, and Reading, where local results in the last two Democratic primaries were very close to the statewide returns.

Patrick won big in all three of our tracking towns.

"Although they're different, Deval Patrick's appeal is diverse, and it's consistent, and -- most important -- it's powerful," Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos said.

Chris Gabrieli has come a long way -- virtually from nowhere -- but the polls say he's not going all the way tomorrow.

Gabrieli is betting millions of his own money that a stronger-than-expected get-out-the-vote effort will prove the polls wrong.

"It's a very close race," Gabrieli said. "We're very confident of that. I know where we stand. It all depends on who comes out tomorrow."

Tom Reilly has been in poll purgatory, falling from the top to the bottom of the surveys. But Reilly concedes nothing to the poll numbers.

"We're going to fight like hell till this is over, and we're going to win it," Reilly said.

With all the polls saying Reilly won't win, Reilly says, "says who?"

"We're not meeting pollsters," Reilly said. "We're meeting regular people. They're going to vote tomorrow."

Different polls use different methods. When they all say the same thing. it's mathematically more likely than not they're right.

So, tomorrow, Massachusetts Democrats will make history: either by proving the state can't be polled, or, by nominating -- for the first time -- an African-American to be governor.

Poll Results:
September 18, 2006 Poll Results

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