The Hiller Instinct: Hiller Instinct: 7News/Suffolk University poll

7News/Suffolk University Poll - Race for Governor
Deval Patrick: 53 percent
Kerry Healey: 26 percent
Christy Mihos: 9 percent
Grace Ross: 2 percent
Undecided: 11 percent
(400 Likely Voters, +-5 percent)

7's Political Editor Andy Hiller takes us behind the numbers in tonight's "Hiller Instinct."

Mud wrestling match? No, it's not a candidates debate. But, yes, it does look a lot like the last month of the governor's race.

"A lot of people have had enough of politics, which is all about manipulating the worst in us, about creating a coalition of haters," Deval Patrick said.

A building implodes, like a building wired to implode, the Kerry Healey Campaign is collapsing on itself.

One Healey TV ad says, "Patrick should be ashamed, not governor."

After weeks of negative ads, our 7News/Suffolk University Poll shows the tone of the Healey campaign has made 61 percent of voters less likely to vote for her and only 16 percent more likely.

"People may agree with Kerry Healey's position on immigration, on taxes, on crime," Professor David Paleologos, a Suffolk University pollster, said. "But because the tone has been so negative, voters are turned off."

Patrick has survived the criticism of his crime record, recapturing all the votes he had before it began.

But Healey? Our poll now shows only 24 percent of likely voters think she's tough on crime, while 59 percent think she just talks tough.

"This tells me as a pollster that the crime issue is a dead issue," Professor Paleologos said. "If people believe that Kerry Healey talks tough and isn't really tough on crime, how can she sell with any credibility the issue of crime now?"

Healey is also losing another battle with Patrick she needs to win on taxes.

"You should be honest about it," Healey said to Patrick. "You are liberal. You should just come out and say, 'I’m going to raise taxes.' You think you can spend your way to prosperity."

While our poll shows 58 percent of voters expect taxes to go up if Patrick is elected while 66 percent say Healey cannot keep her no new taxes pledge if she's elected.

Patrick's biggest problem now may be over confidence: "I'm taking nothing for granted. Nothing."

There's more than negative ads keeping Healey down. There's the sense the state is going in the wrong direction. There's disappointment with Mitt Romney. In Congress, there are Republican scandals.

So, Kerry Healey needs much more than an ad or an issue. What she really needs is a miracle.

I'm Andy Hiller and that's my instinct.

Related link:
Suffolk University Poll link: Latest Political Research Center Poll 10/24

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