The Hiller Instinct: 7News/Suffolk Poll

In the presidential race, Barack Obama has a 19 point lead over John McCain. Obama has 53%, McCain 34% and 7% undecided. In the race for senate- John Kerry has a comfortable lead over challenger Jeff Beatty. Kerry has 56%, Beatty 19%, and 18% are undecided. 7's Political Editor Andy Hiller has a look behind the numbers.

This may be a one-party state, but our poll shows voters here have both eyes wide-open. Take Question 1, which would repeal the state income tax. Everyone would vote to cut their taxes, right? Wrong! In our exclusive 7News Suffolk University Poll, 59% say they will vote no...only 26% yes. And if question one passes, 44% believe Beacon Hill will ignore the voter's will, much more than think it will be honored. How's that for savvy?

Our poll also shows the state may just say yes to decriminalizing marijuana. That's Question 2 on the ballot, and 51% are for it; 32% against.

The closest race is over the future of dog racing. Right now, Question 3 is a dead heat.

Last week, while announcing big cutbacks, Gov. Patrick said, "I know you are anxious, there's real cause for concern." The state's money problems have already brought a prediction people "will die" as services are slashed, but more than half the state's voters do not believe anyone will die because of cutbacks, though 22% do. Ultimately, most voters think Beacon Hill will raise taxes to balance the budget. 59% expect a hike, 28% don't.

Suffolk University Pollster, David Paleologos said, "This question surprised me. This is a big margin for people who are anticipating a tax increase, understanding that there are programs that need to be paid for."

Looking at all these numbers, I see history coming to the White House and misery to the State House. And the money meltdown here makes me think Governor Patrick may not be around much longer. I know he's promised to stay and not take a big job with Obama...but state government is about to get smaller, which is not Patrick's vision. And when times change, minds change. I'm Andy Hiller, & that's my instinct

Take a closer look at the 7News/Suffolk University Poll:  www.suffolk.edu/32587.html

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