The Hiller Instinct: 7News / Suffolk Poll

View the Poll Results

Our poll says you should start calling Shannon O'Brien the frontrunner. Our exclusive 7News-Suffolk survey shows she's opened up a 12 point lead over Mitt Romney, with 21 percent still undecided. The three other gubernatorial candidates attract slight support. Even our pollster is a bit startled by the Shannon surge:

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"It's surprising I think to most political observers. But if you look at the categories of voters that we're looking at, especially party breakdown, she looks real strong."

And what's making her strong is a huge gender gap. O'Brien beats Romney by 20 percentage points among women, and leads by 3 points among men likely to vote.

O'Brien also benefits from a favorability gap:

Prof. David Paleologos
"Her favorability continues to climb. His unfavorability continues to climb. More people are liking Shannon O'Brien and less people are liking Mitt Romney."

If there's anything Romney can like about our poll, it's that a majority of voters now believe he will serve a full four-year term, if elected. And that - by the thinnest margin - more voters expect him, not O’Brien, to be the next governor.

Still, when our pollster sums up the numbers:

Prof. David Paleologos
"Romney's like the stock market. His numbers keep dropping and he can't seem to find a bottom."

And O'Brien:

Prof. David Paleologos
"Basically she needs to run out the clock. She has a sizeable lead. She can allow the third party candidates to grow; it doesn't seem to be coming off of her percentage right now."

The candidates reactions:

Shannon O'Brien, (D) Gubernatorial candidate
"I think the message I've been putting out there has been getting through to the voters."

Mitt Romney, (R) Gubernatorial candidate
"Just a couple of days ago, there were polls saying we're even in the polls. The polls are bouncing all over the place. I don't manage a campaign based on polls."

Maybe he should - because what our poll really says is that the Romney campaign is collapsing, and that, to win, he must change his strategy. He's falling behind everywhere: he needs more men, women, Democrats and Independents.

And with time so short, that's a very long list...maybe too long. If you want to see all the numbers that make me say that, view the full results of the 7News-Suffolk University poll.