The Hiller Instinct: 7News / Suffolk Poll

Poll Results

Mitt Romney's on the run and if he maintains his pace, he'll pass Shannon O'Brien. Our exclusive 7News-Suffolk University poll shows Romney and O'Brien tied today with 21 percent of voters still undecided. But look at the trend in our last poll, Romney was down by 12. Since then, he's gone up, and O'Brien, down.

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"Independent voters are driving this trend. Last survey, independent voters were even, O'Brien and Romney. This survey Romney leads by almost twenty points."

Our poll is full of bad news for O'Brien. Look, for example, at the support for the other three candidates in this race, particularly Jill Stein.

Prof. David Paleologos
"Jill Stein has become a major player in this race. The three percent that she is getting is coming directly at Shannon O'Brien's expense, and that three percent Shannon O'Brien cannot afford to give away."

O'Brien is also giving away votes in the gender gap. In our last survey, among men, O'Brien was beating romney by three points. Today, Romney is up by 10. Among women in our last survey, she was ahead by 20 points. Now that number has shrunk to just eight percent.

Prof. David Paleologos
"The assumption has always been that Shannon O'Brien needs to win big among women voters. She's ahead, but the amount is dwindling."

Our poll also shows that more voters think Romney would be better than O'Brien at creating jobs and that more expect Romney -- not O'Brien -- will be the next governor.

Prof. David Paleologos
"Mitt Romney is gathering momentum and is showing strength, both in real numbers and in perception."

But...

Prof. David Paleologos
"This race is so close that one mistake, one slip up, one untimely glare caught by a debate camera could make the difference in this race."

The candidates' reactions...

Romney
"Well, I don't know about polls, but I do know as I go out and talk to people, I feel a real surege in our campaign."

O'Brien
"This is going to go up and down. This is a very tight race."

One more poll finding, the candidates can stop talking about holding the line on taxes, or lowering them. Because nearly 70 percent of voters think state taxes will be going up, no matter who's elected.