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PrintThe Hiller Instinct: 7News / Suffolk Poll
Buckle up, we're in for a ride! Mitt Romney is now leading Shannon O'Brien, but not by enough to guarantee a win tomorrow, because O'Brien still has a big opening: an unusually large number of undecided voters.
In today's exclusive 7News / Suffolk University Poll, Romney -- at 37% -- is four points ahead of O'Brien, with 22% undecided.
Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University pollster
"Mitt Romney seems to have opened up a little bit of a lead. However, it looks like his numbers vis-a-vis the last survey we took are flat. He's at 37%; Shannon O'Brien, on the other hand, has lost her base. She's gone from 37% now down to 33%. Her base of support seems to be pausing - they seem to be undecided."
Our poll also shows Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 4%, Libertarian Carla Howell with 3%, and Independent Barbara Johnson with 1%.
Prof. David Paleologos
"Jill Stein is the difference in the race at 4%. But more importantly, her favorability has shot up considerably, and she's in the high 20's now. And for a third party candidate with no TV exposure, that's amazing.Andy Hiller, Political editor
"Bad for O'Brien?"Prof. David Paleologos
"It appears that way."
More bad news for O'Brien - while our poll shows more voters think O'Brien's issue positions are more like theirs than Romney's, our poll also shows more voters trust Romney than O'Brien, and that many more believe he'd be better at creating jobs than she would be:
Prof. David Paleologos
"Those component pieces seem to suggest that Mitt Romney is inching ahead and solidifying his position."
This is now a race of inches -- a door-to-door battle to get out the vote. And that's where O'Brien should have a big advantage, given the democratic machine that's behind her. That's why anyone who tells you they know now who's going to win this race is just guessing. No one knows!