Spain bond yields rise as minister warns on euro
MADRID (AP) -- Spain saw its bond yields shoot up again on Friday after the country's economy minister warned that the future of the euro will be determined in the next few weeks and will depend on the stability of Spain and Italy.
The interest rate on 10-year Spanish bonds stood rose 0.13 percentage points to 6.58 percent in early trading. The rate was more than 5.4 percentage points higher than the equivalent German one, which is considered a safe haven for investors.
Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said in a speech Thursday evening that Spain and Europe were at a crossroads as speculation mounts over whether the country will need a bailout. The danger is that Spain's (euro) 1 trillion ($1.24 trillion) economy is far bigger than those of already bailed-out Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined.
Spain's banking sector is laden with soured investments on real estate and the government needs (euro) 19 billion to rescue just one lender, Bankia SA, at a time of recession and crushing unemployment of 24.4 percent.
"I don't know if we are on the edge of a cliff, but we are in a very, very difficult position," de Guindos said Thursday evening in a speech to business leaders in Sitges, a resort town near Barcelona. "The future of the euro is going to play out in the next few weeks in Spain and Italy."
Bond yields -- a measure of investor confidence in a country's debt -- were also very high in Italy, which has big debts and is in recession. Its 10-year bond yield rose to 5.93 percent on Friday on fears that it could be affected by the instability of Spain.
UBS Investment Research said there is no a consensus that the Spanish banking sector in general needs a big recapitalization. It estimated the sector needs between (euro) 80 billion and (euro) 100 billion in new funds.
"The Spanish State should be able to sustain the recapitalization costs without losing control of its finances," UBS analysts said in a note to clients. "We recognize however that financing this intervention in current market conditions will be difficult."
De Guindos supported the recent proposal by the European Commission for a centralized banking authority with the financial capacity to to inject capital directly into troubled banks without having to go through governments first.
He also said Europe needs a regional bank deposit insurance plan like the United States has and a "banking union" to coordinate regulation among countries.
German, however, opposes the idea of a centralized authority that can spend money -- much of which Berlin supplies -- directly on shaky banks.
"We don't see now how such ideas are supposed to help with the short-term management of the current questions," said German Finance Ministry spokesman Johannes Blankenheim. "The fiscal compact is the beginning of the fiscal union and, as a perspective, one can imagine stronger (banking) supervision."
Top financial officials, however, have been warning European leaders they must take action before it is too late.
European Central Bank head Mario Draghi said this week that the setup of the eurozone was unsustainable and called for measures, such as a banking union, as proposed by the European Commission.
World Bank chief Robert Zoellick made similar points in an opinion piece printed in the Financial Times on Friday.
"Eurozone leaders may be nearing a `break the glass' moment: when one smashes the pane protecting the emergency fire alarm," Zoellick wrote in the paper. He likewise supported the idea of having a central authority that can put money into ailing banks.
Despite is resistance to such a move, Germany did back the European Commission's proposal to give Spain more time to reduce its deficit. It stood at 8.9 percent of GDP last year, and the goal is to get it down to 5.3 percent by the end of 2012.
Blankenheim noted that Spain has stated its intention of cutting the deficit to 3 percent by next year, "but we also see that, because of unfavorable economic developments, it could be difficult to reach these targets."
"Spain is fulfilling its commitments in the deficit proceedings and so there is no reason to escalate the proceedings against Spain," Blankenheim told reporters in Berlin. "The Spanish government is tackling with determination the necessary reform measures, and the German government is convinced that this determination will be mirrored on the markets."