Sandy's Trend Continues West

Posted by Chris Lambert

The 5:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Sandy with sustained winds of 80mph and moving north at 13mph.  The expected track has continued to edge west over the last few days, and the National Hurricane Center has the center of the storm going into either south Jersey or Delaware.  Notice the forecast cone though?  There is an inherent margin of error this far out, and a more northern track would bring more significant impacts to New England. 

The more likely scenario right now, and the track, as is, would bring in wind and rain Monday afternoon, through Tuesday.  Winds would gust 40-60mph, mostly onshore, strongest at the coast, and we'd contend with 2-5" of rain through the storm.  Scattered power outages would be felt across the area and moderate beach erosion and coastal flooding becomes an issue at high tides.  Overall effects would be similar to a strong nor'easter. 

While this seems to be the more likely outcome, I don't want to let our guard down against a track farther north.  It's why the National Hurricane Center gives a forecast fan, and not just a direct line.  This far out, the forecast error can be a couple hundred miles.   

It's a very complicated and an anomalous pattern, and timing the phasing of a tropical system with a non-tropical upper-level low can be tricky.  If Sandy can maintain a warm core longer into the forecast period, the resistance to phase may also hold on a bit longer than some of the models project.  If that occurs, the turn NW into the coast happens farther north, putting southern New England in a more serious situation that the current path would take it. Wind, power outages and coastal flooding would be significant.  Again, this outcome is not as likely, but a plausible one.  Not that we wish ill on other locations, but the blocking pattern has been extremely strong, and thus it's tough to fight that forecast trend west.

Just In Time

Posted by Chris Lambert

Summer officially starts Friday at 1:04 A.M., and Mother Nature's sending in summer weather for us just in time.  Mid to late June averages highs near 80 degrees, and we'll be there temperature-wise over the next few days.  Mostly dry too!

That's A Wrap--I Think

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

I hope I'm not jinxing us with this statement.."The recent wet pattern is over....onto sunshine & a more summer- like pattern.." The last time someone from 7 weather called a pattern change too soon we got a blizzard and 3 subsequent nor'easters (looking at you Pete!!--LOL). We don't have to worry about any blizzards or nor'easters but one never knows in the new world order.

Like A Waterfall

Posted by Pete Bouchard

If you were caught in those 'cloudbursts' today, you had more than you could handle in the rain department. Torrents fell in a short amount of time - what we deem 'flash flooding' in the weather biz. Since it happens suddenly, the National Weather Service has adopted the acronym TADD:

Bam! Pow!

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

Bam. Pow! Those were some nasty storms last evening with some towns in metrowest & the city itself blasted with locally heavy rain, hail, lightning and strong wind gusts. A cool front is the culprit and that front will linger across the region again today. That means another round of some scattered showers & t-storms likely.