Sandy's Trend Continues West

Posted by Chris Lambert

The 5:00 AM update from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Sandy with sustained winds of 80mph and moving north at 13mph.  The expected track has continued to edge west over the last few days, and the National Hurricane Center has the center of the storm going into either south Jersey or Delaware.  Notice the forecast cone though?  There is an inherent margin of error this far out, and a more northern track would bring more significant impacts to New England. 

The more likely scenario right now, and the track, as is, would bring in wind and rain Monday afternoon, through Tuesday.  Winds would gust 40-60mph, mostly onshore, strongest at the coast, and we'd contend with 2-5" of rain through the storm.  Scattered power outages would be felt across the area and moderate beach erosion and coastal flooding becomes an issue at high tides.  Overall effects would be similar to a strong nor'easter. 

While this seems to be the more likely outcome, I don't want to let our guard down against a track farther north.  It's why the National Hurricane Center gives a forecast fan, and not just a direct line.  This far out, the forecast error can be a couple hundred miles.   

It's a very complicated and an anomalous pattern, and timing the phasing of a tropical system with a non-tropical upper-level low can be tricky.  If Sandy can maintain a warm core longer into the forecast period, the resistance to phase may also hold on a bit longer than some of the models project.  If that occurs, the turn NW into the coast happens farther north, putting southern New England in a more serious situation that the current path would take it. Wind, power outages and coastal flooding would be significant.  Again, this outcome is not as likely, but a plausible one.  Not that we wish ill on other locations, but the blocking pattern has been extremely strong, and thus it's tough to fight that forecast trend west.

Summ-ah!

Posted by Pete Bouchard

With the snap of the fingers we were thrown into summer this afternoon. Heat, humidity, A/C and shorts - with a hazy sun to boot. But with the sea breeze knocking back the temperatures (and bringing in a round of downpours this evening), there are changes afoot.

Feet First

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

Right into summer. Warm & humid weather expected for much of the week. Good?.....Well, keep in mind that warmth & humidity are the 2 key ingredients for thunderstorms. The last being something to *lift* that warm/humid air. Usually a front is a good device to do such that. Today, we will have a cool front approach New England very late in the day & evening. That may lead to an isolated storm or two after 4pm but most towns just have a fair amount of clouds, warmth & humidity. Temps will climb to near 80 by afternoon.

Warming Up and Unsettled

Posted by Chris Lambert

Well, it certainly was a great weekend weather-wise until this afternoon when the temps dropped and light showers moved in from west to east.  Despite the cool down, the theme for this upcoming week is warmer with higher humidity.  It'll also be unsettled at times. 

Pulling The Fade

Posted by Chris Lambert

Our fun in the sun ends this afternoon as morning sunshine fades behind thickening clouds.  As those clouds increase, a few showers break out this afternoon from west to east, with the highest chance for rain late afternoon and this evening.  Most of the showers are light, especially the early afternoon ones, but a heavier shower or two is possible near day's end and early this evening.  Highs reach the mid to upper 60s around noon, then fall back to near 60 mid to late afternoon thanks to scattered showers.  These showers are brought to us by a warm front.