Playing Out Sandy's Strike

Posted by Pete Bouchard

Late this afternoon, on a group conference call with Louis Uccellini, the director of the National Center for Environmental Prediction, and James Franklin, branch chief of the National Hurricane Center, I was struck by the confidence they showed with

1) Sandy's landfall in the United States

2) The time of landfall (Monday Night)

In a time of uncertainty, it was nice to know we're confident - and can prepare - for those outcomes. Dr. Uccellini was about 90% certain of a landfall in the Northeast Monday Night.

So the time to prepare is now. Although you may hear reports that Sandy has weakened to a tropical storm - clearly a possibility in the days and hours ahead, this is only temporary. As the jetstream hooks into Sandy on Monday, it will enfuse her with massive amounts of energy, resulting in a reintensification of the storm - to possibily a nor'easter of record, in fact.

That's significant because as the storm drops from hurricane to tropical storm, its ability to pile up water and churn the ocean decreases. However, with a restrengthening, that ability is renewed. Moreover, if Sandy decides to loop farther offshore, the greater her chances of striking New England.

Lots of things to consider in the long range. That's why it's important to be vigilant, but not panicked.

Prepare for scattered power outages, a long duration storm (from Monday through Tuesday night), 2-5 inches of rain (possible river flooding as a result) and coastal flooding and beach erosion.

These matters are not to be taken lightly, but with a track over New England looking LESS likely, we are not looking at an epic, devastating storm.

Pete

How To Spin This

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

So....what would you like to hear first? The good news? Bad news? Let's start with the good news....

Come On Ride The Train

Posted by Pete Bouchard

Heavy rain is on the move! All afternoon long it was stalled over Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Heavy pulses of rain traveled over the same towns and cities - a process meteorologists call "training" - resulting in flash flooding in some counties to our west.

Unsettling

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

Another day where we have cool, ocean air battling warmer land air leading to a clash of air. That means clouds, drizzle, fog, humidity (frizzy hair) for much of the day. It's not a washout though. The highest chance of rain is this morning--until 9:30am and then later this afternoon (after 3pm). In between, you will see a lot of clouds but also some sunshine at times. Even limited sun will be able to shove temps well into the 70s. This warm & humid air is what will lead to another round of showers & t-storms later today. Some of the storms will be intense. Like the past two days the strongest storms will be in western New England. Only isolated showers/ thunderstorms are expected along the coastline later today. Sox game will have the risk of some showers but they should be able to play that game. Welcome back Tito!

Saved by The Sea Breeze

Posted by Pete Bouchard

Although my forecast was busted today, there was one good thing that came out of it.

Stability.

That gray overcast that hung over the eastern half of the Commonwealth provided a stablizing influence to our atmosphere. The cool air blowing in from the ocean kept the temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s all the way back to Metrowest. While that makes for lousy short-and-t-shirt weather, it is poison to thunderstorms.