Turning It Around

Posted by Pete Bouchard

Throughout the morning, our nor'easter remained stalled over Nantucket. As it gained a "second wind", renewed gusts rotated around it, hammering the Cape and the Islands to the tune of 50-60mph. I'm happy to say that over the last two hours, our nor'easter has finally shown signs of moving!

The forward speed should increase in the next few hours and as a result, the winds will drop dramatically and there may even be some breaks in the overcast toward sunset.

So what went wrong with the forecast? Why did so many places end up with more (plowable) snow than rain? There are many answers to that question, but the short story is that we had some unusually cold, dry air in place across Northern Mass. and Southern NH. That was carried into the storm on a north wind yesterday afternoon, changing the rain over snow within hours. As it kept feeding in, the snow got fluffier, the roads got colder, and we were caught in a feedback loop.

Behind the scenes, I'm a little disappointed in the weather models we use. We seem to have a widening gap between the short range (next 12-48hrs) and the medium and long range (two to seven days) models. They don't jive, they don't see eye to eye, and we're constantly filling the gaps between them. I dare say, sometimes I feel more confident in the 2-7 day period than a I do over the next 1-2 days!! The medium and long range model (from Europe) we use is the cream of the crop. It nailed Sandy's path 7 days out! Meantime, the shorter range models (from the US) still wanted to bring her to New England, push her through to Ohio, and generally fought among themselves over a solution.

Time will tell if we work the kinks out, but I don't hold out much hope. With the "fiscal cliff" on the horizon, there won't be much money devoted to new synergies between the government and academia over model improvements. But fear not, I've become pretty good at flying by the seat of my pants.

In the meantime, we're increasing the sun in the coming days (there is agreement on that matter), and juicing up the temperatures for the weekend. Confidence is running high on hitting the 60s by Veterans Day.

Pete

Summ-ah!

Posted by Pete Bouchard

With the snap of the fingers we were thrown into summer this afternoon. Heat, humidity, A/C and shorts - with a hazy sun to boot. But with the sea breeze knocking back the temperatures (and bringing in a round of downpours this evening), there are changes afoot.

Feet First

Posted by Jeremy Reiner

Right into summer. Warm & humid weather expected for much of the week. Good?.....Well, keep in mind that warmth & humidity are the 2 key ingredients for thunderstorms. The last being something to *lift* that warm/humid air. Usually a front is a good device to do such that. Today, we will have a cool front approach New England very late in the day & evening. That may lead to an isolated storm or two after 4pm but most towns just have a fair amount of clouds, warmth & humidity. Temps will climb to near 80 by afternoon.

Warming Up and Unsettled

Posted by Chris Lambert

Well, it certainly was a great weekend weather-wise until this afternoon when the temps dropped and light showers moved in from west to east.  Despite the cool down, the theme for this upcoming week is warmer with higher humidity.  It'll also be unsettled at times. 

Pulling The Fade

Posted by Chris Lambert

Our fun in the sun ends this afternoon as morning sunshine fades behind thickening clouds.  As those clouds increase, a few showers break out this afternoon from west to east, with the highest chance for rain late afternoon and this evening.  Most of the showers are light, especially the early afternoon ones, but a heavier shower or two is possible near day's end and early this evening.  Highs reach the mid to upper 60s around noon, then fall back to near 60 mid to late afternoon thanks to scattered showers.  These showers are brought to us by a warm front.