Close Call Indeed
Posted by Chris Lambert
Not a whole lot changes in the weather department over the next 36hrs... and that means the occasional sprinkle or flurry with overnight temps just below freezing and day time highs just above 40.
The story of the week will be the storm coming through the Northern Plains and heading right for the mid-Atlantic. There's no question that this will be a powerful storm, the question is, how close to New England does it move?
Regardless of exact track of this storm, this is what I expect:
With a strong high to our north, and deepening low to our south, there's no way to avoid a strengthening onshore wind.
An east to northeast wind increases Wednesday with just a few rain showers scattered about. A few snow showers likely mixes in outside 495. As the wind continues to increase, especially along the coast, seas build and minor beach erosion and minor coastal flooding are possible by the early evening high tide Wednesday.
Winds continue to increase out of the northeast Wednesday night and Thursday, adding to the potential of beach erosion and coastal flooding during the 6:45AM high tide cycle and 7:30PM high tide cycle. The PM high tide has a higher likelihood of flooding.
Winds Wednesday night and Thursday gusts 40-50mph at the coast, with the highest gusts across SE Mass, especially the Cape and Islands. A cold rain and even some wet snow settles in, with at least a couple inches of wet snow outside 495 across the higher terrain of Rhode Island and southern Worcester County.
What the track will dictate:
The amount of rain and snow we get Wednesday night and Thursday. A closer track with heavier precip would have the ability to pull down colder air, bring the rain/snow line closer to the coast, and provide much higher snow totals, especially in the hilly terrain. (This is the most uncertain part of the set-up right now)
Despite having strong winds anyway, even stronger winds would occur if the track of the low is a bit closer. 60+mph gusts would be possible across the Cape.
Also, the track will dictate how long the storm lingers, and if we're still dealing with rain/snow showers, wind and coastal concerns Friday morning.
Lots to watch, we'll keep you posted.