Trend Is Our Friend
Posted by Chris Lambert
The early morning sunshine has a tendency to fade away today, but with a wind now out of the south, temperatures warm into the middle to upper 50s. The south wind is active this afternoon, gusting at times to 25-30mph. The relative humidity this afternoon runs around 30-40%, so it'll be dry, just not as dry yesterday. The brush fire risk is elevated today, but no red flag warnings are in place.
Mostly cloudy skies and a passing sprinkle roll through overnight before more sunshine returns for tomorrow. What a beauty at the Fens tomorrow for opening day! Temps run in the low 60s early in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies taking over. On caveat to tomorrow's Red Sox forecast is to watch out for a cooling late afternoon with a sea breeze kicking in. With water temps only near 40 degrees, that onshore wind can create quite the chilly feel to the air once it gets going. Near the coast, including Fenway, I'd plan on near 60 for first pitch, low 50s by the end of the game, and upper 40s around sunset. Around and outside Route 128, most of the afternoon is in the lower to middle 60s.
A few showers and a rumble of thunder slide in Monday night and very early Tuesday morning. That rain is along a warm front which will provide us with the warmest weather we've seen in about 6 months by Tuesday afternoon. With a bit of sun breaking out Tuesday afternoon and a southwest wind taking over, we'll run near 70 degrees!!! Likely the first 70 in Boston since the 74 on October 20th.
Beyond Tuesday, it's complicated. There are times when I have tremendous confidence in a forecast 5-7 days out, then there are times like this upcoming forecast. The geographical difference between temps in the 40s & 50s and temps in the 70s to near 80, won't be that much Wednesday-Friday. It all depends on where the front sets up. Some models suggest that we're on the warmer side, some, on the cooler. One thing to keep in mind this time of year, with cold ocean waters and a deep snow pack still across northern New England and Canada, the cold air tends to press these fronts farther south. The European model shows that, and that's what my late-week forecast is riding on. The best chance of rain comes Friday, and being on the colder side of the front with a northeast wind, I think we'd be hard pressed to get out of the 40s. Yuck!