Diving Into The Clouds
Posted by Pete Bouchard
Back to the peace and quiet today. Winds were back to their normal selves too. Just enough to stir the air and keep the temperatures in the mid/upper 60s.
You notice anything about this October? Little dry? Yeah. Bright? Sure.
The obvious: it's missing the cold air. I mean we just had a strong cold front pass, and we still saw temperatures in the upper 60s today. Sure the mornings are chilly, but who's garden has been wiped out by a frost or freeze? I don't see deep cold anytime soon, but there is a headache brewing over the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
No, it's not a tropical system. It's what we call a cut-off low. Although a rarity 20+ years ago, these days they're quite common. They can set up anywhere. Here's one out west:
Note how the storm is abandoned - "cut-off" from the jetstream which moves storms along. Here's another, smack dab in the Southern Plains:
The blue colors are the upper level winds. Note that the cut-off has its own mini jetstream - a scary prospect for a storm left to wander. The more wind it circulates, the better your chances for flooding rains - or in winter, heavy snow.
Thankfully, with our little buddy off the Carolina coast is NOT loaded with strong wind and water. And for that reason, our showers will be light and spotty throughout the late workweek and weekend.
Timing? A noble concept, but in this case a foolhardy one too. Each pulse of rain will have its own track and timing as it peels off the storm, rotates through Southern New England and returns to the "mother ship". We'll just have to take each one as it comes.
That said, it seems like a ceasefire may be in order for the weekend as the storm center wobbles a little farther south. At this point, with very little certain and confidence low, we'll just have to see how that pans out over the next three days.